Chicago – October 31, 2024
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.
Enten mentioned that the fraction of people satisfied with the country’s current direction, President Biden’s current approval numbers, and strong voter registration numbers among Republicans in swing states are all things that signal Trump’s re-election next week.
“If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.
Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are lower as she’s the incumbent at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track.
He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who believe the country is on the right track when the incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average rate when the incumbent wins is 42 percent.
Mentioning the 28 percent number, he said, “It doesn‘t look anything – anything – like this 42%… So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins.”
Enten then broke down the second sign – that historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not succeeded by a candidate of that same party.
“So, I went back and I looked. Okay, was this successor of the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden‘s most definitely is? He‘s 15 points underwater.”
Enten pointed to how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same framing fit the end of former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by Republican Richard Nixon’s term. The same was the case at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.
