Chicago – November 18, 2024
Donald Trump decisively won the U.S. presidential election, becoming one of only two American leaders who have retaken the keys to the White House after a spell out of office.
Just as in 2016, investors are grappling with policy uncertainty surrounding his presidency and what might come in the following year.
Yet, the outcomes are likely to be vastly different from eight years ago — at least as far as India is concerned.
Manufacturing
At first glance, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign appears double-edged and at odds with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative.
Taxes on goods imported from China into the U.S. will likely benefit India, most analysts say, as companies shift manufacturing to the South Asian nation to avoid duties. Global trade changed considerably over the past four years — benefiting India — as President Joe Biden retained much of Trump’s tariffs on China.
Immigration
President-elect Trump campaigned on curbing illegal immigration in the United States, and just as long as the new administration’s focus remains on “illegal,” the Indian IT sector remains shielded. However, if unemployment continues to rise, as it has over the past few quarters, policy uncertainty risk becomes front and center.
Energy
On the one hand, analysts expect Indian interests to be aligned with those of the United States regarding oil prices. Trump’s previous term in office, whether intentionally or coincidently, saw moderate to low oil prices. Market observers expect that to be repeated in his second term.
As India imports over 90% of its oil needs, New Delhi will likely welcome any move by the U.S. to keep oil prices low.
