Chicago – April 05, 2025
Grocery shopping is likely to get even more expensive following the newest set of import tariffs announced by President Trump on Wednesday. These tariffs, which are taxes on foreign goods paid by businesses, follow earlier ones targeting Canada, Mexico, and China. Items like seafood, coffee, nuts, and cheese are expected to see price increases. Even treats like candy bars may cost more at the checkout.
Food industry expert Phil Lempert who also runs supermarketguru.com, estimates that nearly half of all supermarket items, roughly 40,000 products, could be impacted by these tariffs, whether through the full product or specific ingredients. Joseph Balagtas, an agricultural economics professor at Purdue University, adds that tariffs can also raise food prices indirectly, such as through increased fertilizer costs from Canada or the weakening of the U.S. dollar.
While it’s still uncertain exactly how much prices will rise, the 10% tariff on many imports and even steeper “reciprocal tariffs” on others suggest that significant cost increases may be on the way.
Seafood
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, major seafood imports come from countries like Chile (10%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%), and Vietnam (46%), which are among the leading suppliers.
This category is expected to be heavily impacted, as the U.S. imports as much as 85% of its seafood, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many of the countries that export fish and shellfish to the U.S. are among those most affected by the new tariffs.
Coffee
According to the USDA, Brazil and Colombia each account for 10% of U.S. coffee imports. The United States is the largest coffee importer in the world, with around 80% of its roasted coffee imports coming from Latin America. Over 60% of that comes specifically from Brazil and Colombia.
Fruit
Top suppliers include Guatemala (10%), Costa Rica (10%), and Peru (10%).
Guatemala and Costa Rica are major banana exporters to the U.S. Guatemala also provides melons, plantains, and papayas, while Costa Rica exports pineapples, avocados, and mangoes, according to the USDA.
“These fruits have a short shelf life, and the new tariffs will likely lead to serious challenges in both pricing and supply,” says Phil Lempert.
Beef
According to the USDA, major beef imports come from New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%). While 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is produced domestically, tariffs are expected to add to current price challenges. Ground beef, for instance, is already at record-high prices, and the U.S. cattle population is now at its lowest level since 1951.
Rice
Top rice suppliers include Thailand (36%) and India (26%), based on USDA data. Although most rice sold in the U.S. is grown locally, nearly one-third is imported mainly jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India.
Cheese
Italy, France, Spain, and the Netherlands are key cheese exporters to the U.S., and all are subject to a 20% tariff from the European Union, according to the USDA. Popular varieties like Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie, and Gouda are expected to become more expensive.
Nuts
The World Bank lists Vietnam (46%), Côte d’Ivoire (21%), Brazil (10%), and Thailand (36%) as major sources of nuts. Price increases are likely for cashews, pecans, and macadamia nuts in particular.
