Chicago – February 18, 2026
A sweeping crackdown on immigration in President Donald Trump’s second term, characterized by elevated deportations and strict new visa bans, has precipitated an 80% collapse in net immigration to the U.S., according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs.
The report, released Feb. 16, warns the dramatic contraction in the flow of foreign-born workers is fundamentally altering the nation’s labor supply mathematics and lowering the threshold for job growth needed to maintain economic stability.
The investment bank’s U.S. economics team, in a report led by David Mericle, projected a precipitous drop in the arrival of new workers. While net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s, that figure fell to 500,000 in 2025 and is projected to plummet further to just 200,000 in 2026, Goldman said. That represents an 80% decline from the historical baseline, a shift the report attributes directly to aggressive policy changes, including “elevated deportations,” a recently announced pause on immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, and an expanded travel ban.
The economists note these measures are likely to “slow inflows of visa and green card recipients” significantly, while the “loss of Temporary Protected Status for immigrants from some countries” poses further downside risks to the labor supply.
The report explicitly links the forecasted drop to elevated deportations and tighter visa and green card policies.
