Chicago – April 28, 2025
Canadians will head to the polls on Monday after an election campaign dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s contentious remarks and policies, particularly his tariffs and controversial suggestions about annexing Canada. Trump’s threats have stirred nationalist sentiments, boosting the support for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two G7 central banks.
The final days of the campaign were marred by tragedy. On Sunday, a man drove an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, resulting in at least 11 fatalities and numerous injuries. Both Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre paused their campaigns in response to the incident, acknowledging the tragedy at their respective final events. Despite the shocking event, Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, stated he did not expect the mass casualty to influence voter behavior.
Polls conducted on the eve of the election indicate a tight race. A CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos survey revealed that Carney’s Liberals held a slight 2.7-point lead over Poilievre’s Conservatives, with the Liberals garnering 42.6% of national support compared to the Conservatives’ 39.9%. An EKOS poll suggested a broader six-point lead for the Liberals and predicted they would secure a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons, avoiding the need to rely on smaller parties for governance.
Trump’s rhetoric resurfaced last week when he proposed a 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars, claiming that the U.S. no longer desired them. He also floated the idea of using “economic force” to make Canada the 51st state. In response, Carney has emphasized his expertise in economic management as a key asset in navigating U.S. relations, while Poilievre has focused his campaign on issues such as the rising cost of living, crime, and the ongoing housing crisis.
Trump further reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state in a social media post on Monday, ensuring that tensions with the U.S. remain a significant factor as Canadians prepare to vote.
