Chicago – May 18, 2025
The White House released a report on Saturday warning that up to 9.2 million more Americans could lose their health insurance if a key budget bill does not pass. The report, titled “Health Insurance Opportunity Cost if 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass,” was issued by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
The study suggests that if the bill is not approved, the number of uninsured people in the U.S. could rise from 27 million in 2025 to around 36 million, nearing the 50 million uninsured before the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was introduced in 2010. The report explains that states with expanded Medicaid might cut back on coverage to save money during a tough recession.
The White House predicts that a recession could be triggered by the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts in 2026, which could lead to job losses and reduced consumer spending. According to the report, the U.S. economy could shrink by 4%, and unemployment could rise by 4%, causing about 6.5 million job losses. Of those, 3.9 million people could lose employer-sponsored health insurance.
Additionally, the report expects a significant drop in individual and marketplace insurance coverage, with 500,000 to 1 million people possibly losing or failing to gain health insurance due to the recession. The study also notes that gig workers, early retirees, and non-citizens would be especially impacted by these changes.
