Chicago Sunday, May 18, 2025
The Growing Threat of Nuclear Conflict Between India and Pakistan
We are living in deeply unsettling times. Following a terrorist attack in Kashmir in April that claimed the lives of at least 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, India accused Pakistan of being behind the assault. In response, India threatened to restrict Pakistan’s access to water and launched airstrikes in May. Pakistan vowed a “measured but forceful response,” raising the specter of a broader conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Both India and Pakistan possess around 170 nuclear weapons each. A nuclear exchange between them would ignite massive fires in cities and industrial areas, releasing smoke that would rise into the stratosphere, an atmospheric layer where there is no rain to clear it away. This smoke would block sunlight, leading to significantly colder, darker, and drier conditions on Earth’s surface. Our studies show this could cripple global agriculture for five years or more, resulting in widespread famine. Humanity still lives under the looming threat of nuclear catastrophe. However, there is an alternative path, one that begins with the United States. By removing land-based nuclear missiles from high-alert status and negotiating with Russia to reduce nuclear stockpiles, the U.S. could lead by example. Ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could also send a powerful message to countries like Iran and others considering nuclear development.
Global Consequences of Nuclear War: From South Asia to the Superpowers
The stakes are dire. One of the authors (Robock) warned 15 years ago in Scientific American that a nuclear war in South Asia could alter the global climate and endanger the world’s food systems. Since then, further analysis has measured how varying levels of smoke from nuclear fires would impact agriculture in different countries. Assuming no food storage, halted trade, and unchanged farming practices, the outcome of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan could be the starvation of one to two billion people within two years.
Even more alarming is the risk posed by the larger nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia, which together hold over 8,000 nuclear warheads. A full-scale nuclear war between these two powers could result in more than six billion deaths globally within two years. While the immediate effects, blast, fire, and radiation, would be devastating, historical experience from Hiroshima and Nagasaki suggests that famine caused by disrupted agriculture would claim many more lives, potentially 10 to 20 times greater than those lost in the initial attacks.
