Chicago – September 13, 2026
Fareed Zakaria has raised concerns that a major political collapse in Iran could create conditions for civil war rather than lead directly to a stable democratic transition. His analysis highlights the uncertainty surrounding what could happen if Iran’s current leadership were weakened or removed.
A key factor is the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which has significant military, political and economic influence. If central authority deteriorated, the IRGC could become one of several competing centers of power.
Iran’s ethnic and regional diversity could also complicate a transition. Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and other communities have longstanding grievances, and a weakened central government could encourage demands for greater autonomy or independence.
Zakaria also points to the fragmented nature of Iran’s opposition. Different groups have competing visions for the country, making a unified transition difficult.
Foreign intervention could further increase instability. Military pressure or outside involvement could create a power vacuum and intensify internal divisions.
The broader warning is that removing a regime does not guarantee a peaceful replacement. A prolonged conflict in Iran could cause mass displacement, disrupt energy markets and create serious consequences across the Middle East. The crucial question, therefore, is not only how Iran’s political system might change, but who would control the country afterward.
