Chicago – November 14, 2025
The International Monetary Fund says the United States economy is starting to show clear signs of strain, with fourth quarter growth now expected to fall below earlier projections. The slowdown comes after several years in which the economy remained surprisingly resilient.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said domestic demand has begun to moderate and job growth has weakened further. She pointed to slowing immigration inflows, higher tariffs and broader policy uncertainty as factors weighing on overall activity.
The Fund’s assessment has been complicated by the 43 day government shutdown, which has blocked access to key federal data since October 1. Without reliable numbers, the IMF says it cannot accurately evaluate current U.S. conditions or complete the preparatory work needed for its annual Article IV consultations.
Because of this data blackout, the consultations with U.S. authorities have been postponed, and no new date has been agreed upon. Kozack described the shutdown as creating an unusual blind spot that makes policymaking harder for both the government and international observers.
Even so, the IMF expects the economic hit from the shutdown to be temporary. It anticipates that growth in the first quarter of 2026 will rebound, following a pattern seen after previous shutdowns once federal operations restart and delayed spending resumes.
On inflation, the Fund still believes the United States is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. However, it warns that the new tariff regime is raising the risk of renewed price pressures. Slower job creation has also complicated the Fed’s task as it tries to weigh inflation concerns against a softening labor market.
Kozack said the Fed’s recent rate cuts were appropriate but urged caution in the months ahead. Inflation expectations remain stable, although the persistence of high prices is still hurting lower income households.
The IMF also addressed growing concerns about U.S. engagement on the global stage. The Trump administration has chosen to skip the upcoming G20 leaders summit in South Africa, prompting questions about Washington’s role. Kozack said the G20 remains an essential platform for the world’s major economies to coordinate policy and manage shared risks.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will attend the summit after meetings in Angola. The Fund also noted that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played a key role in securing a joint G20 statement on tackling global debt challenges during October’s meetings.
As the United States prepares to assume the G20 presidency in 2026, debt and financial stability issues are expected to remain high on the agenda. A leaders summit is planned in Miami next year, where these concerns are likely to dominate discussions.
Taken together, the IMF’s analysis paints a picture of an economy entering a more fragile phase. The combination of restricted data, slower hiring, weaker demand and trade-related pressures has created uncertainty at a critical moment.
Policymakers and markets are now waiting for the shutdown to end so that a clearer picture of the country’s economic health can re-emerge. Until then, the IMF warns that assessments will remain clouded and the true extent of the slowdown will be difficult to measure.
