Chicago – January 20, 2026
During the campaign, President Trump pledged to dramatically reduce Americans’ energy expenses promising cheaper gasoline and electricity and repeatedly championed a return to robust domestic fossil fuel production with his “Drill, baby, drill” slogan.
A year into his administration, U.S. gasoline prices are about 20% lower compared to a year ago, offering some relief at the pump. This decline has helped households spend roughly $177 less on gasoline in 2025 than in 2024, with projections suggesting further savings in 2026.
However, presidents do not directly control fuel prices. Gasoline costs are largely determined by crude oil prices, which are set in global markets influenced by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. Over the past year, a global oversupply of oil has played a major role in keeping prices low, largely due to production decisions made by the OPEC+ cartel, which increased output to capture market share.
Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, says political pressure also contributed to lower oil prices. According to him, political dynamics likely influenced at least half of the roughly 20% drop in oil prices seen in 2025, with similar conditions expected to continue into 2026.
Despite lower fuel prices, the U.S. oil industry has not ramped up drilling activity. Oil prices remain too low to justify significant new investments, even though companies have secured regulatory and lobbying wins that ease some operational costs.
At the same time, electricity prices are moving in the opposite direction. Power bills are rising nationwide and are expected to increase further, making it difficult for the administration to meet its goal of cutting overall energy bills in half.
Trump has also signaled support for increased oil production from Venezuela, a move that could help keep global crude prices lower if companies are willing to invest. Analysts at GasBuddy estimate that American households will collectively save around $11 billion on gasoline in 2026 if current price trends continue.
