Chicago – January 16, 2026
According to the Early Warning Project 2025–26 from the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, India was ranked 4th out of 168 countries in terms of risk of future mass killings of civilians — not actual current civilian deaths. This risk score reflects likelihood estimates of where large-scale, identity-based killings could occur in the near future.
- Top three countries with higher risk than India are:
🔹 Myanmar
🔹 Chad
🔹 Sudan
(These countries already have ongoing mass violence incidents.) - India is ranked 4th on the risk list, meaning researchers see it as a significant potential hotspot — not that India is currently the fourth deadliest place for civilians.
What “Risk of Mass Killing” Means
The Early Warning Project uses statistical models to estimate where future episodes of mass civilian killing — defined as (≥1,000 unarmed civilians killed in one year for identity-based reasons — might be more likely. It’s a predictive risk ranking, not a ranking of countries by how many civilians have been killed in reality.
