Chicago – January 01, 2023
Israel claims that, while it has not yet vanquished Hamas, it is close to achieving its stated goal, claiming to have “eliminated” 8,500 fighters.
The Israeli military’s performance, on the other hand, has been exceedingly unequal in many facets of the armed and diplomatic response.
In purely military terms, Israel has had some success. It has carried out complicated military operations in urban terrain, undoubtedly the most lethal type of combat, by moving gradually – but too cautiously and slowly.
On the ground, Gaza City and Khan Younis are besieged, but the military has yet to eliminate Hamas fighting formations.
The proportion of senior non-commissioned officers among the 172 Israeli soldiers killed so far is extraordinarily high, but the number of officers killed in battle is astonishing, with no less than four full colonels among the dead.
The casualties suffered by Hamas are almost definitely less than those claimed by Israel. A conservative estimate would place it at 3,500 combatants, or 20% of its front-line complement. This equates to 20 Hamas fighters killed for every Israeli soldier.
In classic combat, any general would gladly accept that ratio as a guarantee of victory. But not in this conflict. Hamas warriors are politically and religiously driven, and have been trained to disregard death; the dead are seen as martyrs, which strengthens the cause.
In contrast, Israeli society, which is strongly militarised (save for the ultra-religious), has a reduced tolerance for the deaths of its citizens.
